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ACUS11 KWNS 212126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212125=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-212330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1881
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0425 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Areas affected...northeast OH...far western PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 212125Z - 212330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The tornado risk will likely continue for another hour or
so (thru 600-630 pm EDT) and decrease towards sunset and likely be
very limited after sunset.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from Cleveland's 88D shows a broken band
of supercells immediately ahead of a strong mid-level vorticity
maximum moving east across the southern Great Lakes. Surface
temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 60s with dewpoints near 60
F. RAP forecast soundings indicate 100-250 J/kg MLCAPE with a
relatively straight hodograph yielding 150-225 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH.=20
The current expectation is for a continuation of the tornado risk
for the next hour or so given the sufficient buoyancy in place
across northeast OH. However, as the boundary layer begins to cool
this evening towards sunset and temperatures fall into the 60-62 deg
range, storm-scale rotation will gradually become more intermittent
and less intense. The tornado risk will correspondingly lessen as
supercell rotation weakens. The tornado risk will further diminish
after sunset as cooling further increases convective inhibition and
supercell rotation becomes more marginalized.

..Smith/Dial.. 10/21/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pjhrMaHdvkixOwPpyHIu-V6C4TzseEX9JpL-xI2LofDzdMkSkyQWTcp_1noPUN-GSTsIti2b$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 40878149 41618112 41758020 41168008 40248090 40088214
40878149=20



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