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ACUS11 KWNS 170321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170321=20
MAZ000-RIZ000-170415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1875
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

Areas affected...southeast MA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 170321Z - 170415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Localized damaging gusts cannot be ruled out. The
expected coverage and magnitude of the potential severe risk will
preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to progress eastward across
southern New England. A frontal-forced convective band has
developed over RI and is moving east-northeastward into southeastern
MA. With the negatively tilted mid-upper trough over the region,
expecting at least a maintenance of convection due in large part to
strong forcing for ascent. Buoyancy will remain scant but downdraft
potential in the form of stronger gusts is not entirely out of the
question. As a result, some limited risk for a damaging gust could materialize, especially if convection intensifies.

..Smith/Guyer.. 10/17/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!orCuAGr9pO4XQMGzC8338DgDBGEU23Ez6VHEAkK14dK74AV_ZNNwQcrcpHHagMswyksYVoT3$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...

LAT...LON 42087123 42347096 42297067 41947054 41547084 41387141
42087123=20



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