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ACUS11 KWNS 142050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142049=20
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-142215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1860
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021

Areas affected...portions of northern IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 142049Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms may undergo brief intensification with a
risk for isolated damaging wind gusts into this evening. Given
expected sparse severe coverage, a watch is not likely.

DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a cluster
of thunderstorms ongoing along a cold front across west-central IN.
Ahead of the front, weak destabilization (500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE)
from cloud breaks may support a brief uptick in convective intensity
over the next couple of hours. Regional model soundings show
deep-layer shear profiles remain relatively strong around 40-50 kts.
Shear remains mostly parallel to the cold front, supporting a linear
mode behind the wind shift. However, the southern most sections of
the cluster, including a weakly rotating cell over Parke County, IN,
appear to be ahead of the cooler air suggesting relatively greater
potential for damaging wind gusts. Overall hi-res guidance remains
uncertain on convective evolution casting considerable doubt on the
coverage of any severe weather. However, given the strong shear and
sufficient buoyancy, a few isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be
ruled out.

..Lyons/Dial.. 10/14/2021

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oHg7QKtCod67x74sJyCO9tysHSojoVTJzdA2CrYy-3ZE98ZI0uy4rS7HW540xdc31micMPJh$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILX...

LAT...LON 40708499 40008597 39488677 39268739 39428760 39748755
40128734 40768661 41668527 41728490 41298477 40708499=20



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